A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
